COVID Will Go Extinct! (Doctor Predicts)
Published at : October 16, 2021
Many experts are predicting that Covid-19 will become an endemic infection, persisting for generations and causing annual outbreaks and necessitating annual vaccination to prevent hospitalization and death. However, I think it is highly likely that as the number of people infected increases, the effective replication rate will decline below 1 and stay there for a prolonged period, driving the pandemic to extinction or to very low levels. My reasoning is based on the history of prior pandemics and based on the low mutation rate of the virus and low rate of reinfections.
Sources:
Evaluation of potential COVID-19 recurrence in patients with late repeat positive SARS-CoV-2 testing: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0251214
Recurrent SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity after COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis (data on prolonged positivity): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77739-y
SARS-CoV-2 and influenza: a comparative overview and treatment implications: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/
Estimated US Infection- and Vaccine-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Based on Blood Donations, July 2020-May 2021: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2784013?alert=article
Delta variant R naught: https://health-desk.org/articles/how-contagious-is-the-delta-variant-compared-to-other-infectious-diseases#:~:text=The%20current%20R%2Dnaught%20for,an%20R%2Dnaught%20of%208.5.
Transmissibility of variants: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/06/16/the-delta-variant-is-the-most-dangerous-sars-cov-2-mutation-yet
Clinical evidence that the pandemic from 1889 to 1891 commonly called the Russian flu might have been an earlier coronavirus pandemic: https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1751-7915.13889
Comment or ask questions below! I would be happy to answer!
Subscribe on YouTube for more videos every Wednesday!
Make video requests in the comments section!
My book "Resilience in the Face of Multiple Sclerosis" on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07WP7H5LK
Dr. Brandon Beaber is a board-certified neurologist with subspecialty training in multiple sclerosis and other immunological diseases of the nervous system. He is a partner in the Southern California Permanente Medical Group and practices in Downey, California (South Los Angeles). He has several publications on MS epidemiology and has participated in clinical trials for MS therapeutics. You can follow him on twitter @Brandon_Beaber where he regularly posts about MS news and research.
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/Brandon_Beaber
Music: INNER GRACE - Copyright 2018 Wilton Vought Source: Really Really Free Music Link: https://youtu.be/wy9FL1-jup4 T
he video material by Dr. Brandon Beaber is general educational material on health conditions and is not intended to be used by viewers to diagnose or treat any individual's medical condition. Specifically, this material is not a substitute for individualized diagnostic and treatment advice by a qualified medical/health practitioner, licensed in your jurisdiction, who has access to the relevant information available from diagnostic testing, medical interviews, and a physical examination. To the extent that Dr. Beaber endorses any lifestyle change, behavioral intervention, or supplements, the viewer should consult with a qualified healthcare professional to determine the safety and efficacy of the intervention in light of their individualized information.
Sources:
Evaluation of potential COVID-19 recurrence in patients with late repeat positive SARS-CoV-2 testing: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0251214
Recurrent SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity after COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis (data on prolonged positivity): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77739-y
SARS-CoV-2 and influenza: a comparative overview and treatment implications: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/
Estimated US Infection- and Vaccine-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Based on Blood Donations, July 2020-May 2021: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2784013?alert=article
Delta variant R naught: https://health-desk.org/articles/how-contagious-is-the-delta-variant-compared-to-other-infectious-diseases#:~:text=The%20current%20R%2Dnaught%20for,an%20R%2Dnaught%20of%208.5.
Transmissibility of variants: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/06/16/the-delta-variant-is-the-most-dangerous-sars-cov-2-mutation-yet
Clinical evidence that the pandemic from 1889 to 1891 commonly called the Russian flu might have been an earlier coronavirus pandemic: https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1751-7915.13889
Comment or ask questions below! I would be happy to answer!
Subscribe on YouTube for more videos every Wednesday!
Make video requests in the comments section!
My book "Resilience in the Face of Multiple Sclerosis" on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07WP7H5LK
Dr. Brandon Beaber is a board-certified neurologist with subspecialty training in multiple sclerosis and other immunological diseases of the nervous system. He is a partner in the Southern California Permanente Medical Group and practices in Downey, California (South Los Angeles). He has several publications on MS epidemiology and has participated in clinical trials for MS therapeutics. You can follow him on twitter @Brandon_Beaber where he regularly posts about MS news and research.
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/Brandon_Beaber
Music: INNER GRACE - Copyright 2018 Wilton Vought Source: Really Really Free Music Link: https://youtu.be/wy9FL1-jup4 T
he video material by Dr. Brandon Beaber is general educational material on health conditions and is not intended to be used by viewers to diagnose or treat any individual's medical condition. Specifically, this material is not a substitute for individualized diagnostic and treatment advice by a qualified medical/health practitioner, licensed in your jurisdiction, who has access to the relevant information available from diagnostic testing, medical interviews, and a physical examination. To the extent that Dr. Beaber endorses any lifestyle change, behavioral intervention, or supplements, the viewer should consult with a qualified healthcare professional to determine the safety and efficacy of the intervention in light of their individualized information.
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